Sunday, August 20, 2006

Mexican Civil Unrest: Revolution Coming Soon

Updated August 25th:

Is Mexico to be the next Flashpoint, preceeding Iran? You would never guess it reading the news or by watching Keith Oberman.

Ominous signs that civil unrest is about to permeate the entire nation are occurring. The Tribunal that decides on the legality of the July 2nd election between Obrador and Calderon for president is about to deliver a judgement. The judgement may declare a winner, annul the election or call for a complete recount. A complete recount is what Obrador is demanding. If it is not delivered he has promised to engage in "peaceful" civil disobedience.In the state of Oaxaca ( South of Mexico City) there are abductions, people are being disappeared. There is a work stoppage this week, with 80,000 people participating state wide. Access to banks and ATM's is being blocked. 8 radio stations have been taken over by protestors in Oaxaca, the police are expected to make an attempt to remove them. The city center of Zocalo in Mexico City is being occupied by thousands of protestors who are demanding a full recount of the recent Mexican presidential election.

From Znet:

Throughout the past week gunmen of have opened fire on members of the People’s Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO for its initials in Spanish) killing four and wounding at least 10.

Organizations and citizens across Oaxaca formed the APPO shortly after the governor, Ulises Ruiz Ortiz’s (Institutional Revolutionary Party) failed June 14 raid on a teachers’ encampment in downtown Oaxaca City. The teachers had been camping out, on strike, since May 22. The APPO united the teachers’ union and a broad swath of political and social organizations to demand the immediate renunciation or destitution of Ulises Ruiz. The APPO led massive marches with up to half a million people in attendance before deciding to step up their civil disobedience tactics on July 26 by shutting down all branches of the state government, setting up encampments around government office buildings. On August 1, some 3000 women led a women’s only march through town that led to the unarmed take over of the state television and radio corporation, CORTV. APPO’s explicit strategy is to generate “ungovernability” (ingobernabilidad) to force Ulises Ruiz’s exit from office.

These tactics of civil disobedience are the same tactics employed by Obrador in Mexico City. Mexico, especially Southern Mexico appears ripe for Revolutionary activity.

There is something going on in Mexico. Millions of people are taking to the streets in Mexico City under the leadership of Obrador. In the South, Mexicans are protesting in Oaxaca. Further South in Chiapas (which borders Guatemala and whose Indian population in Guatemala is the same historically) sits Subcommandante Marcos who is a cultural hero to the Indian community and many Mexicans and who led an attack on San Cristobal De Las Casas in 1994, briefly taking over the city until he returned to the jungle where he has since been surrounded by Mexican troops.This week of August 20th he has been warned that he is not protected by any agreement and he may in fact be attacked by the army.  In Guerrero, there has long been an unspoken guerilla movement. 

Though it may not be critical to what’s happening in Mexico right now, the U.S. policy on immigration and it’s attitude toward immigrants will be a contributing factor to what may be the next Mexican Revolution.

It seems Obrador will not stop unless he is given the presidency. He appears to be determined to either become president or lead a revolution in Mexico. For weeks he and his followers have been camped out in the Zocalo in Mexico City.  They are blocking three main roads into the city. They vow to stay there until a full recount of the election is made. Obrador is also  threatening to block other areas of commerce including the airport. Obrador has said that if the tribunal endorses the fraudulent election he will have no choice but to bring down the fraudulent government that simply promotes it's own fraudulent activities. This is clearly a call to revolution. Obrador say he will stop Mexico from functioning through peaceful resistence.

Fox has threatened to call in the army to remove the protestors. A battle seems to be developing. Obrador, has the support of Castro, and most importantly Chavez. Hugo Chavez may be helping to fund him and certainly would should he be called upon.

  If Fox calls in the armed forces there will be violence. It appears likely he will have to call the army in if the tribunal does not overturn its decision and grant another full recount. If Fox brings in the army and there is violence, Obrador will probably be arrested, and the working class anger toward the government will boil over and there will be civil unrest.

There is next to nothing on American television about what appears to be a very volatile situation in Southern and Central Mexico.

The APPO’s explicit aim has been to generate “ungovernability.” They have succeeded. In over a month in Oaxaca, I have not seen one uniformed police officer. The idea that the state maintains its monopoly of the legitimate use of violence has been obliterated. But the APPO has refrained from resorting to violence itself in this total power vacuum. Their tactics are extreme—shutting off access to all government buildings; commandeering government vehicles; occupying the town square; taking over the state television station—but never violent. The state, in turn, responds with outright violence such as the failed June 14 police raid, or covert violence such as the arbitrary detentions, beatings, shootings, sabotage attempts and assassinations of the past week.

Army intelligence officers videotape over land travelers to and from Oaxaca. Spies follow journalists throughout the day. Plainclothes cops with machine guns pick APPO leaders off the street. No one knows where the governor is, not even his press secretary. Gunmen fire into crowds.

On Friday, Flavio Sosa, one of the APPO spokespeople, publicly called for a meeting with Carlos Abascal, the Minister of the Interior, to discuss possible solutions to the conflict in Oaxaca. “Ulises Ruiz is leading us into a situation practically of civil war, and our movement is non-violent,” he said in a press conference in the occupied town square. “Our movement is non-violent. In fact, it is a movement against violence, against a system of violence that excludes us, against the violence of police brutality.”

Obrador will attempt to shut Mexico down if Calderon is certified as president by the tribunal without a full recount. What role will America play? What role is America playing at this time? Is the U.S. preparing to send first technical advisors, then military hardware, then the United States Navy, then the airforce and finally ground troops into Mexico to protect American "citizens" and American "interests"? That's the American pattern of response in Latin America. It has only been subdued recently because of American preoccupation in the Mid East. But Mexico is too close to home to be ignored.

Perhaps these "contingency" plans are already in effect.

Just today a Mexican government spokesman had to downplay the idea of civil unrest should the tribunal support Calderon.


  MEXICO CITY, Aug. 24 (Xinhua) -- A Mexican government spokesman dismissed suggestions on Thursday that a social explosion would follow the Electoral Tribunal's ruling on the country's contested July 2 election, due within a week.

This is highly unlikely to happen even if the Tribunal nominates Felipe Calderon Hinojosa, of the ruling National Action Party, president-elect, Presidential spokesman Ruben Aguilar Valenzuela said.

But Obrador seems to see things differenlty. Here is what he said in Spanish followed by my translation:

AMLO: Si se convalida el fraude, nuestro deber ciudadano será terminar con este sistema político basado en la farsa democrática y en instituciones que sólo sirven para legalizar el abuso de poder''


"If they validate the fraude. It is out duty as citizens  to end this poltical system based in a false democracy, (a farce) and in the institiutions that serve only to legalize the abuse of power."

Obrador's comment above is a clear call to revolution. How else can it be interpreted?

The tribunal must decide by September 6th. September 15th is like the American July 4th in Mexico. And November 20th is the day of Revolution when the long standing dictatorship of Porfirio Diaz was overthrown. Watch these dates as they may be dates around which Obrador will begin major acts of civil disobedience in an attempt to shut down the nation.

Obrador is as far left as Hugo Chavez. He is a populist and is not acceptable to the United States. He cannot be permitted to become President of Mexico. American business and American political interests are opposed to the programs he is in favor of instituting. With Chavez as an anchor in South America and Obrador an Anchor for Mexico, the Carribean and Central America, the United States will feel threatened. Unnecessarily threatened but that unfortunately becomes irrelevant. America is a nation that see enemies everywhere. And if a nation is not an enemy but is percieved as one it will be attacked until it becomes an enemy and is either defeated or defeats the U.S. through guerilla war.

Salvador Allende was not permitted to continue as president of Chile in the 1970's. Perhaps the same fate will occur should Obrador be skillful enough to work his way into the Presidential office. Or pehaps the same fate awaits him  should he engage in civil disobedience and become the leader of a "peaceful "revolutionary movement.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

President Bush Will Attack Iran After November

President Bush is preparing the U.S. psychologically for war with Syria and Iran. The recent Israeli invasion in Lebanon is a first step. The Israeli invasion allows for the association to be made between Terrorism (Hezbollah, actually an army) and Iran and Syria as supporters of Hezbollah. Hezbollah and the mythical Al Queda become synonymous. 

We will continually hear for some months now about the association of Iran and Syria to terrorism. Then there will be a terrorist attack of some kind against Americans. The connection between the attack and Iran and Syria will produce an attack, most likely against Iran. Iran will have their nuclear facilities, their armies, their bases, infrastructure and economy bombed. The idea will be to create an environment in which the Iranian people become uncomfortable: no electricity, heating oil, food. The Bush administration imagines this will makes the Iranian government look weak and lose the support of the Iranian people. Power plants will be bombed, the people will be punished and America assumes that the people will blame the Iranian government for it’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Parts of this scenario have been suggested by a number of authors, including Seymour Hersh

After November the President will begin his pursuit, full steam ahead. He is in the unusual position of actually making decisions on war as an individual and implementing them as an individual who does not feel the need for consul. He will act as an individual, not as a elected representative.

After the attack on Americans he will receive the support of newly elected conservative democrats and “fighting” democrats who will not oppose his “strong response” which may begin as a simple bombing of Iran but which will inevitably escalate into something more extreme.

Bush and Iraq Before the War in Iran

President Bush is also preparing to dump the prime minister of Iraq, Maliki and his entire government. The U.S. army is beginning to switch sides in Iraq and is now focusing much of it’s fighting against Shiite targets. Maliki is a Shitte. Right now he is complaining about these American attacks on the Shiite Militias, he is supporting Hezbollah; he is criticizing U.S. actions in Iraq and calling for U.S. military to be subject to investigation and legal proceedings by the Iraqi government. By November or shortly afterward he will be removed by a coup, resign, be assassinated or voted out of office. The chaos in Iraq will escalate to even more unimaginable levels and one way or another he will be replaced by an emergency “temporary” government that may simply be chosen by the U.S.

The purpose of removing Maliki will be to limit his ability to inflict criticism and therefore official encouragement to Shiites to wage war against the U.S. after the U.S. bombs Iran. Bush does not want a critic in Iraq when the bombing begins. The failure of the Iraqi government will be blamed on Iran. Iran will be blamed for all the choas in Iraq and perhaps for undermining the Maliki government. But it will be America that undermines Maliki and it is the U.S. that is currently undermining his government. A Iraqi government that supports Hezbollah and refuses to support the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

President Bush today called for sealing the borders of Syria Perhaps he will blockade as much of Syria as possible before the war with Iran. The current situation in Lebanon allows for Israeli troops to occupy Lebanon up to the Litani River. I don't think the Israelis will leave Lebanon not  until long after the war with Iran is over. That way with Syria blockaded and Hezbollah neutralized ….to some extent… from shooting Katusha rockets into Israel, the amount of damaged in Israel will be minimalized after an attack on Iran. An attack on Syria would probably come last. They may even try to avoid attacking Syria. Syria is capable of attacking Israel and Iran is the primary target, especially since they are said to be the suppliers of Hezbollah weaponry. After an attack on Iran, Bush could attempt to threaten Syria with the same if there is not a requistie "regime change" made

Regardless of the outcome, the outcome of bombing Iran will be interpreted as a success, just as Israel’s setback in Lebanon is being called a success. President Bush said Hezbollah has been defeated. They have in fact been successful.

The problem is after a disastrous bombing of Iran and the first effects of the horrific economic problems generated by this attack, Bush will turn his attention to the last remaining focus of Evil, North Korea. He will not leave office without attacking, or coming very close to attacking North Korea unless he is stopped.

Bush is going all the way. No one is trying to stop him. There doesn’t seem to be anyone in the horizon trying to stop him.

American Civilian Airliners at Risk in Europe

This was [originally published] on July 16th on, one month before the arrest of an alleged conspiracy to blow up 10 American Airliners in Europe.

President Bush and Israel are provoking Iran and Iran is demonstrating it’s assertiveness perhaps through Hezbollah. Iran is challenging the U.S. to attack it, knowing that it can disrupt the world economy and still survive. Perhaps Iran anticipates an attack by Israel and or the U.S. as a foregone conclusion. It seems to many that it is. The idea that Bush has given up “cowboy diplomacy” is probably nothing more than another planted story intended to further confuse the public in the same way we constantly hear about troop withdrawals and then are told there will be no troop withdrawals. In this manner, the Bush cabal can present itself as withdrawing troops and not withdrawing troops. The cabal can argue from both sides, disarming those who favor staying in Iraq and those who favor withdrawal.

What will be the outcome of the adventures in Lebanon? Israel is upping the ante everyday with new attacks, followed by new attacks by Hezbollah most recently into the Israeli city of Haifa apparently using their longest-range rockets.

  By the end of October we may have an American Passenger plane or two shot down in Europe. This is what President Bush apparently is hoping for: A symbolic act of aggression, a terrorist act against the United States but not on American soil. If the attack were to take place here, Bush would be vulnerable to charges of not protecting the “Homeland”. Instead an attack on foreign soil or air or sea would be seen as something he could not prevent but must certainly answer in an aggressive way with another one of his “tough decisions” or two.

Especially delicious would be an attack against American civilians. Hezbollah which mirrors Bush’s messianic attitude of acting upon the orders of God and ignoring the secular realities of living and dying may be all too willing to accommodate Bush. Or perhaps Israel may provide an undercover spark to make sure that those who support Israel are re-elected to their seats.

Hezbollah and the Bush cabal seem to be acting almost in concert. Bin Laden and Bush also seem to be working together to bring fundamentalism to America and the Mid East. This is afterall the actual result of his actions. Iraq is now governed not by a secularist Government as in the days of Sadaam Hussein, but rather, by a fundamentalist group who are bringing Sharia law to Southern Iraq and spreading it northward.

We must forget the rationale of the Bush administration. We must not listen to its words. Just look at its behavior. Look at the results of what it has done and then infer its rationale. What it has done is to replace a secular government in Iraq with a fundamentalist government under the influence of fundamentalist Iran. We can come to no other conclusion that this is the INTENTION. As hard to believe as it may be, that is the result of American actions under Bush in the Mid East. The Mid East has become more fundamentalist and less democratic.

It is my opinion that President Bush is a disturbed person. He has mental health issues, as do many of the very paranoid people around him like Vice President Cheney. These two, Cheney and Bush have attracted what Colin Powell and others have called the “crazies” around them. The Neo-cons. That’s no joke. Crazy people often have bizarre rationales for the things they do. Perhaps they heard a voice from God and the voice told them to kill their only son. Oh, yes that's is in the bible.  Well, our President is hearing disembodied voices from God and the disembodied voice told him to invade Afghanistan, Iraq and to solve the problems in the Mid East.

But in fact I fear our president is simply suicidal. But before he destroys himself he’s going to kill everyone else first. That’s how angry he is and it is this anger that causes him to hear voices that call out for destruction, rape, pillage, torture, kidnapping, bondage and war. Those are real things that have occurred. They are perverse things from a perverse administration headed by a very perverse president. This is a president who tortured animals as a boy and humans as an adult in his fraternity. A president who was ridiculed and kept on the sidelines by his family for fear his reckless acts of drug and alcohol abuse would destroy his own father’s political career and or at least embarrass President George Herbert Bush, his "dad".  Now as President himself GWB can and will show them all for making him hate himself.

George Bush has the power to destroy the enitre world. He will destroy everything and everyone for making him feel like an outsider in his own family, for causing him to feel so much pain in self hatred. He will destroy everyone for his felt rejection by his family and by infererence his rejection by the enitre world. This is a man who craves being hated. He makes the tough decesions that go against the grain.  He likes doing things that everyone else sees as wrong. It puts him on the outside of common sense, public opinion, the polls. He likes being against the world. This is the place he feels most comfortable in. It's the place he has always been in, the only place he knows. It's his place. Afterall it's the same place Jesus was in before he was crucified. Like Jesus there were only a few followers who stood with him against the many.


We have now a messianic struggle between elements of two religious groups who do not consider the Earthly Reality of war as being particularly significant.

The art for Bush's Karl Rove is to keep the damaged contained to something like a passenger plane until after November.

Then I fear real World War will break out with America and Israel against Iran, Syria and North Korea. The axis of evil. The places where Satan calls home and where Bush has identified as his mandate by God to cleanse.

Bush will then, I suppose,  try to draw in China and primarily Japan against North Korea and Russia against Iran and Syria.

A military take over of the United States, would be preferable to this form of Messianic Democracy.

Friday, August 04, 2006

Baghdad is About to Be Destroyed

Last year I predicted the destruction of New Orleans before the Hurricane hit and the lack of responsiveness to it. This year I am predicting the Destruction of Baghdad. I am pretty good at predicting destruction because, well, that’s about all there is to predict.

As President Bush prepares for yet another august August vacation in order to see if he can make his dick hard by clearing some brush around his ranch, forces are preparing for the Battle of Baghdad in which the entire city will be destroyed in order to make it free of unsightly insurgents.

The United States and the Iraqi insurgency have been preparing for this battle for weeks. It's under the radar.

U.S. Forces are being “redeployed” around the city. This isn’t to beef up security as you may have been led to believe, this is for a major “Fallujah” type of assault on the neighborhoods where U.S. “intelligence” (there’s an oxymoron…or maybe just a moron lurking somewhere) have identified the presence of insurgents. Does anyone remember Fallujah? That's a city of 350,000 people that was emptied before the battle began. Most of the people didn't leave or coultdn't leave. Those who didn't leave were assumed to be insurgents.  That's where the U.S. used cluster bombs, white phosphourus and napalm to burn and set on fire human flesh. The city was almost entirely leveled to the ground. They want to do that in Bagdhdad.

The New York Times reports on this issue without quite spelling it out.

The plan is to concentrate on specific neighborhoods rather than distribute the forces throughout the city, control movement in and out of sectors of the capital and try to sweep them of insurgents and violent militias.

In effect, the scheme is a version of the “ink blot” counterinsurgency strategy of grabbing a piece of terrain, stabilizing it and gradually expanding it. Only this time the objective is not a far-flung Iraqi city or town, but the capital, the seat of the fledgling government and home to some seven million Iraqis.

By securing the city a sector at a time, American and Iraqi commanders hope to allow the Iraqi government to restore essential services and build support and legitimacy among an anxious public.

Once the areas are stabilized, the Iraqi police are to be brought in to maintain control, freeing the American and Iraqi military to extend their reach elsewhere. The Iraqi police are to be accompanied by American military police, who will act as advisers and trainers.

“Baghdad is truly a must-win,” said Maj. Gen. William B. Caldwell IV, the senior spokesman for the military command here. “The prime minister has stated it. General Casey has stated it. We have to win in Baghdad. We don’t have an option.”

Insurgents are people who don’t like to be raped, murdered, shot, killed, tortured, forced into kinky sex, displaced and beaten by Americans. For some reason they find that objectionable. It must be their Arabazoid culture.

The reason why U.S. troops are gathering around Baghdad is because the insurgents are pouring in from all around Iraq to Baghdad to begin the final  battle against America. Baghdad has come largely under the control of the Mahdi Army. A Shiite Army, not a Sunni Army. But the U.S. will be trying to drive out the Sunnis insurgents and the Mahdi Shiite Army Militia and some other militias who the Sunnis are fighting. It figures to be a interesting brawl, the battle plan is pretty much everybody against everybody. U.S. troops will go house to house, ferreting out insurgents and killing all military age males and raping hot Iraqazoid women when they have a moment and the opportunity arises. 

This is much like the recent invasion of Israel into Lebanon. It will fail, the city will be destroyed, and on top of the rubble a Fox Military spokesman speaking to Fox news will proclaim victory as a bullet from an insurgents AK 47 goes whizzing merrily through his already emptied head.