We will continually hear for some months now about the association of Iran and Syria to terrorism. Then there will be a terrorist attack of some kind against Americans. The connection between the attack and Iran and Syria will produce an attack, most likely against Iran. Iran will have their nuclear facilities, their armies, their bases, infrastructure and economy bombed. The idea will be to create an environment in which the Iranian people become uncomfortable: no electricity, heating oil, food. The Bush administration imagines this will makes the Iranian government look weak and lose the support of the Iranian people. Power plants will be bombed, the people will be punished and America assumes that the people will blame the Iranian government for it’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Parts of this scenario have been suggested by a number of authors, including Seymour Hersh
After November the President will begin his pursuit, full steam ahead. He is in the unusual position of actually making decisions on war as an individual and implementing them as an individual who does not feel the need for consul. He will act as an individual, not as a elected representative.
After the attack on Americans he will receive the support of newly elected conservative democrats and “fighting” democrats who will not oppose his “strong response” which may begin as a simple bombing of Iran but which will inevitably escalate into something more extreme.
Bush and Iraq Before the War in Iran
President Bush is also preparing to dump the prime minister of Iraq, Maliki and his entire government. The U.S. army is beginning to switch sides in Iraq and is now focusing much of it’s fighting against Shiite targets. Maliki is a Shitte. Right now he is complaining about these American attacks on the Shiite Militias, he is supporting Hezbollah; he is criticizing U.S. actions in Iraq and calling for U.S. military to be subject to investigation and legal proceedings by the Iraqi government. By November or shortly afterward he will be removed by a coup, resign, be assassinated or voted out of office. The chaos in Iraq will escalate to even more unimaginable levels and one way or another he will be replaced by an emergency “temporary” government that may simply be chosen by the U.S.
The purpose of removing Maliki will be to limit his ability to inflict criticism and therefore official encouragement to Shiites to wage war against the U.S. after the U.S. bombs Iran. Bush does not want a critic in Iraq when the bombing begins. The failure of the Iraqi government will be blamed on Iran. Iran will be blamed for all the choas in Iraq and perhaps for undermining the Maliki government. But it will be America that undermines Maliki and it is the U.S. that is currently undermining his government. A Iraqi government that supports Hezbollah and refuses to support the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
President Bush today called for sealing the borders of Syria Perhaps he will blockade as much of Syria as possible before the war with Iran. The current situation in Lebanon allows for Israeli troops to occupy Lebanon up to the Litani River. I don't think the Israelis will leave Lebanon not until long after the war with Iran is over. That way with Syria blockaded and Hezbollah neutralized ….to some extent… from shooting Katusha rockets into Israel, the amount of damaged in Israel will be minimalized after an attack on Iran. An attack on Syria would probably come last. They may even try to avoid attacking Syria. Syria is capable of attacking Israel and Iran is the primary target, especially since they are said to be the suppliers of Hezbollah weaponry. After an attack on Iran, Bush could attempt to threaten Syria with the same if there is not a requistie "regime change" made
Regardless of the outcome, the outcome of bombing Iran will be interpreted as a success, just as Israel’s setback in Lebanon is being called a success. President Bush said Hezbollah has been defeated. They have in fact been successful.
The problem is after a disastrous bombing of Iran and the first effects of the horrific economic problems generated by this attack, Bush will turn his attention to the last remaining focus of Evil, North Korea. He will not leave office without attacking, or coming very close to attacking North Korea unless he is stopped.
Bush is going all the way. No one is trying to stop him. There doesn’t seem to be anyone in the horizon trying to stop him.