Saturday, June 11, 2005

What's Really Going on In Iraq

The Actual political situation at this moment in Iraq is that the Jaafari and Talabani government seems to want the U.S. out as well. They are shifting their strategy. They hope to rely on Iran, not the U.S. for support against the resistance. I believe their hope is that with the Americans gone, the resistance will decrease in numbers and become more manageable than with the Americans present.

Removal of American forces combined with overwhelming support of Iranian arms and Iranian training of troops replacing U.S. training is the objective of the Jaafari/Talabani Government. The use of the Badr Brigade (An Iranian trained Iraqi Militia of about 20,000 with the Kurdish Peshmerga numbering 75.000 will be enough to contain the insurgents pending negotiations with them, they hope. The Badr Brigade is, at the moment, apparently being used as a death squad against Sunnis in the South of Iraq.

Talabani and Jaafari believe they have a better chance at solving the problem of warfare than the Americans. This probably cannot work because the Americans don't want to leave. Until they do the plan cannot be enacted.The Americans, have no intention of leaving as they are building permanent U.S. bases.

The resistance are a varied people who are fighting for a variety or reasons. Most simply want the U.S. to leave. If the U.S. leaves it seems reasonable to assume only a portion of that resistance will remain to fight the U.S. installed government.

What is not being reported or brought out by the news media is that the Talabani/Jaafar government is allied with Iran and seeks to make Iraq similar to Iran along fundamentalist lines. If Jaafari/Talabani government is to survive without U.S. presence that won't be an option: it will be a demand the Iranians make in exchange for their support of the Puppet Talabani -Jaafari government. But it will be a Iranian demand that Shiite Iraquis embrace and are embracing, I feel.

The problem for Jaafari is that the Kurds really don't want to be part of Iraq. They want their own nation. To commit 75,000 Kurdish Peshmerga to fight for Iraqi unity seems to be inconsistent. But Talabani (a Kurd) and Jaafari are hoping to use the possibility of this and make it into a reality for their own specific personal and political goals. This will be difficult. But it is, I sense what they are trying to pull off. The idea is that we have to get the Americans out first and foremost. Only then can we establish the government and get a foothold of control through a diminishing resistance (with the U.S. gone) and through alliance and support with Iran. The Kurds are not inclined as the Shiites to ally with Iran, but Iranian support may help them in their struggle to fend off the Turks.

The bottom line is that the U.S. should pull out immediately. Allowing the resistance to fight the fundamentalists ,defeat the current government and secure at least the central portion of Iraq. Otherwise there will be a horrible stalemate involving U.S. forces that will go on throughout the Bush Administration and well into the next no matter who is elected. It will take years after Bush is gone for a U.S. pull out to be arranged. No sooner than 2013.

Everything Bush is doing is supporting the establishment of fundamentalist's regimes, not democratic regimes in Iraq and the Mid East. If there is a traitor among us it would be Bush.

He is sending U.S. troops to fight for the fundamentalists who are more likely to be sympathetic to the fundamentalists who were responsible for 911 than the Insurgents who have had no interest previously in fighting the U.S. Don't forget: They withdrew when U.S. forces arrived in Kuwait.

Sadaam Hussein's cruelty was real but greatly exaggerated by the U.S.

A much. ...or at least equally cruel person is George Bush who is killing his own troops to support the people who are more likely to be allied with those who attacked the United States. Remember: it is not the Fundamentalist we are fighting in Iraq: it is the a wide variety of insurgents with a wide variety of agendas but which is most probably more secular than religious. Many of whom who are people who supported the secular- not fundamentalist government of Sadaam. They would have to be consideredliberals in Iraq. We should never have opposed Saddaam.

U.S. media coverage has presented a confused picture of the reality of Iranian politics. Maybe I haven't helped in this exposition. We are fighting our natural allies and supporting our natural enemies.


1 comment:

Stu Piddy said...

Interesting. Do you think the US will react neg. if they ally with IRan?